Impact analysis of potential glyphosate regulatory restrictions in the European Union on Turkish hazelnut production and economy

Abstract

Hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) is a native shrub on the steep slopes of the mountains and on the plains in the Black Sea coast of Turkey. Turkey is the world's largest hazelnut producer and exporter, followed by Italy, Spain, the United States, and Greece. Within the scope of this project, a number of surveys were conducted in Turkey to understand the impact of a glyphosate ban on hazelnut production and the economy. Sixty farm surveys were conducted within the Black Sea region, and those data were used as primary information sources. Databases of institutions, theses, academic reports, and published articles were used as secondary data sources to determine the possible effects of a glyphosate ban on Turkish hazelnut production and economy. One of the most important findings of the study was that agricultural business and employment sustained by hazelnut production constitute a significant part of the rural economy. Tillage and mechanical strategies remain as the most sustainable alternative methods for controlling weeds. A potential glyphosate restriction may increase the demand for labor due to a higher need for mechanical strategies. The cost of these alternative methods are 80% more compared with glyphosate weed control systems. The benefit-cost model predicted that, in the case of no glyphosate use, total hazelnut production would decrease by 12% to 21% due to inefficient weed control. A glyphosate ban would result in a reduction in Turkish gross domestic product. Yearly, an average of US$2 billion in revenue is obtained from hazelnut exports, and this number corresponds to 1.37% of Turkey's annual export value. The glyphosate ban would cause a US$240 to US$420 million loss in hazelnut export value and reduce production by 66 to 115 million kg. Global demand for hazelnut is believed to be on the increase, and world production depends largely on Turkey.