Development of pavement performance prediction model for bituminous hot mix asphalt on interurban road networks

Abstract

The correct prediction of the deterioration of bituminous hot mix asphalt (HMA), which is a significant substructure investment for roads, is an indispensable element in the correct sorting of the budget allocated for maintenance and repair. This study has developed a pavement performance prediction model for state roads and intercity roads hot mix asphalt (HMA) coated under the responsibility of General Directorate of Highways (KGM) for capable of performance forecast for next year. International roughness index (IRI) were used as a performance indicator of pavements. Pavement condition index (PCI) of the road sections (year of construction of the road known by KGM), using existing pavement distresses data by PAVER system, were obtained. The prediction performance model was developed depending on the age and PCI of the road sections using deterministic regression model technique. Then, mathematical relationship was determined between PCI and IRI on the same road section. The obtained mathematical relationship is integrated into the prediction performance model. A prediction model determines the pavements IRI values for the coming years, based on independent variables of measured IRI value and year's estimated performance, were obtained. The accuracy of the IRI deterioration prediction model was controlled by the data sets not used in the modeling studies.