Effect of exchange rate on dried apricot export in Turkey: A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis

Abstract

Volatilities, which occur in exchange rates, cause variability in revenues also obtained from export. This study aimed to explore the relationship between variability in exchange rate and export values of dried apricot. VAR method was followed using monthly time series data covering the period of 2003:01 - 2008:12 and mutual relations were analyzed by using VAR method. The stationary variables were analyzed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Research results showed that there was unidirectional causality from exchange rate to exports values. Based on the results of an impulse-response test, volatility caused by a shock with one standard error to be applied on variables may become stable after 11 periods. Research results also showed that volatilities in export values depended on exchange rate by 20% in long period. Following stabilization policy for exchange rate and extending markets to alternative ones may increase the export revenues.